🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Made $436K from Wagers Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader immediately preceding it was made public, sparking debate about whether someone profited from confidential information of the US operation. Changing Odds in Predictions Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to former President Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A particular user, which became a member recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436K from a initial bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Market statistics shows that traders estimated the likelihood of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday. But these probabilities had climbed to over 10% by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the morning of Saturday, pointing to a sudden change in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This particular bet has all the signs of a trade based on inside information," commented Dennis Kelleher. Several of other platform users also earned large payouts from similar wagers. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Politicians are starting to take note. A new rule introduced on Monday would prevent public officials from participating on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a wager. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with traders able to wager on everything from elections to politics. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. But it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the stock market, but there are fewer regulations in the forecasting arena. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."